OREANDA-NEWS The International Monetary Fund has increased its assessment of the dynamics of the Russian economy in 2024. Now the IMF expects growth of 3.6%, not 3.2%, as in July. The assessment of global economic growth for the current year is unchanged at 3.2%, according to the October World Economic Outlook (Policy Pivot, Rising Threats), published by the fund on Tuesday.

In July, the fund did not change its forecast for 2024 for both the Russian economy and the global one.

Simultaneously with an increase in the assessment of the growth of the Russian economy this year, the IMF lowered its forecast for 2025 to 1.3% from 1.5%.

The new IMF estimates turned out to be lower than the updated medium-term baseline forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which provides for GDP growth of 3.9% and 2.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. At the same time, they fell within the range of the Central Bank's forecast: 3.5-4.0% in 2024, 0.5-1.5% in 2025.

The global economic growth forecast for next year has been reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%.

The forecast for global inflation for 2024-2025 has been reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively.

The Fund lowered its forecasts for inflation in advanced economies in 2024 to 2.6% from 2.7%, and in 2025 to 2% from 2.1%. The forecast for emerging and developing countries has been reduced by 0.1 percentage points this year to 7.9%, and maintained at 5.9% for 2025.

The forecast of global trade volume growth for 2024-2025 remained unchanged at 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

The IMF expects an increase in the average oil price in 2024 by 0.9% compared with the previously expected growth of 0.8%, to $81.29/bbl. (previous estimate - $81.26/bbl.). In 2025, the fund predicts a price decrease of 10.4% (previously - only 6%), to $72.84/bbl. (it was $76.38/bbl).