25.10.2023, 09:58
The consequences of population aging for the Russian economy are named
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS The gradual aging of the Russian population in the foreseeable future may slow down the growth rate of the national economy. As a result of the reduction in the share of able-bodied citizens, the country's GDP growth rates risk becoming near-stagnant, said Alexey Vedev, head of the financial research laboratory at the Gaidar Institute. His words are quoted by RBC.
The analyst believes that it will be extremely difficult to achieve any significant economic growth in Russia taking into account the above factors in the next few decades. "The lot of all "aging" economies is the transition to near—stagnant growth. On the horizon until 2046, Russia's GDP is unlikely to grow faster than 1.5 percent per year," Vedev concluded.
According to Rosstat forecasts, by 2043 the share of the older generation will surpass the record in the history of Russia achieved in 2018 before the start of pension reform (25.8 percent), and by 2046 it will grow to 26.9 percent. This indicator will be 2.4 percentage points higher compared to the data as of the beginning of 2023. In quantitative terms, the increase will be approximately 1.5 million Russians. At the same time, the number of the youngest citizens under the age of 15 (the lower limit of working age), on the contrary, will decrease — from 18.5 percent of the population in 2023 to 15.6 percent in 2046. Thus, over the next 23 years, the share of such Russians will decrease by 5.5 million people. Taking into account the above factors, the number of citizens over the working age in the country will reach 37.3 million people, or more than a quarter (26.9 percent) of the total population, the statistical office concluded.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Health of Russia, Mikhail Murashko, also announced the acceleration of the aging rate of the Russian population. According to him, at the beginning of 2023, a total of 34.5 million citizens over the age of 60 lived in the country. By that time, the share of such Russians in the total population had reached 23.5 percent.
The analyst believes that it will be extremely difficult to achieve any significant economic growth in Russia taking into account the above factors in the next few decades. "The lot of all "aging" economies is the transition to near—stagnant growth. On the horizon until 2046, Russia's GDP is unlikely to grow faster than 1.5 percent per year," Vedev concluded.
According to Rosstat forecasts, by 2043 the share of the older generation will surpass the record in the history of Russia achieved in 2018 before the start of pension reform (25.8 percent), and by 2046 it will grow to 26.9 percent. This indicator will be 2.4 percentage points higher compared to the data as of the beginning of 2023. In quantitative terms, the increase will be approximately 1.5 million Russians. At the same time, the number of the youngest citizens under the age of 15 (the lower limit of working age), on the contrary, will decrease — from 18.5 percent of the population in 2023 to 15.6 percent in 2046. Thus, over the next 23 years, the share of such Russians will decrease by 5.5 million people. Taking into account the above factors, the number of citizens over the working age in the country will reach 37.3 million people, or more than a quarter (26.9 percent) of the total population, the statistical office concluded.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Health of Russia, Mikhail Murashko, also announced the acceleration of the aging rate of the Russian population. According to him, at the beginning of 2023, a total of 34.5 million citizens over the age of 60 lived in the country. By that time, the share of such Russians in the total population had reached 23.5 percent.
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