OREANDA-NEWS Over the past month, the RGBI index, which is responsible for quotations of Russian government bonds, has fallen to a two-year low. The last time it was at this level was in April 2022, when there was uncertainty about the prospects for the economy, although now there are no visible fundamental factors for this, Izvestia writes.

Experts interviewed by the publication believe that the main reason was a change in expectations about a reduction in the key rate, which is currently at a high level relative to inflation — 16 percent versus 7-8 percent.

Vladimir Kornev, an analyst at Cifra Broker, believes that for a long time the market believed that the rate would fall faster, and now it is trying to compensate for the previous stability. The current deposits of banks look more attractive than federal loan bonds (OFZ), so funds naturally flow there, which puts pressure on the RGBI.

Evgenia Nesterenko, an analyst at the PSB Management Company, noted that the current dynamics of key indicators indicates that there are even more reasons to raise the rate than to lower it, which is why investors are reconsidering their expectations regarding securities.