US retains aggressive fuel-economy standards
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today published a final determination that fuel-economy standards it adopted in 2012 remained "feasible, practical and appropriate" and did not need revisions. That action concludes a mid-term review that might have provided an off-ramp to rules projected to lift average fuel-economy to an equivalent of 51.4 miles per USG by 2025.
EPA had planned to wait until mid-2017 to propose whether to revise the standards and then take until April 2018 to reach the final determination. But that timeline was compressed down to two months after president-elect Donald Trump's victory raised the odds that the standards could be significantly weakened, erasing projected cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants.
US automakers complain EPA rushed the process and failed to meet earlier promises to provide a meaningful review of the standards. The problem, they say, is lower gasoline prices and shifting consumer tastes for large vehicles have made it harder to sell more vehicles with costly fuel-saving technology.
"Our fundamental priority remains striking the right balance to continue fuel economy gains and carbon reduction without compromising consumer affordability and vital auto-sector jobs," said the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, which represents Ford, General Motors, Toyota and other large automakers.
EPA administrator Gina McCarthy, who officially signed the determination yesterday, said she was confident the upcoming standards could be achieved at a reasonable cost. US automakers have had years of "record sales" while producing vehicles that meet or exceed the existing standards, she said, and deployment of more fuel-efficient engines has occurred faster than expected. The projected fuel-economy standard for cars and trucks built in 2017 is 36.6 miles per USG.
The Trump administration could still attempt to revise the standards, but doing so would require a time-consuming rulemaking process that would take years to complete. And because of today's action, EPA would have to explain why it wrongly concluded during the mid-term review that the standards were appropriate.
The US Congress will be unable to block today's determination using the Congressional Review Act (CRA), a statute that Republican lawmakers want to use to throw out flaring restrictions on federal land and new coal mining rules designed to protect streams. That is because the determination is not a formal rulemaking and only has the effect of retaining five-year-old regulations. The CRA only is applicable to regulations adopted within 60 legislative days.
EPA projects the standards will raise the average cost of a vehicle sold in 2025 by about \\$1,100 but provide net savings of \\$1,650 because of fuel savings. During the lifetime of vehicles sold between 2022-25, EPA expects the rules will create net benefits of \\$100bn, cut oil consumption by 1.2bn bl and reduce the equivalent of 594mn tons (540mn metric tonnes) of CO2.
EPA says the rules will lead to a "real-world" fuel economy standard of 36 miles per USG by 2025. The reason why the real world standard is lower is because EPA offers credits to automakers for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in other ways, such as using air conditioning fluids with reduced effects on climate.
Environmental groups applauded EPA's decision to keep the standards, a key component of the pledges the US has made to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28pc below 2005 levels by 2025. But they acknowledge that the fight over the fuel-economy standards is likely to continue after Obama leaves the White House.
"Carmakers should invest in engineers to save consumers money and cut our oil use and pollution rather than in lobbyists to weaken this sensible, cost-effective standard," the non-profit Center for Auto Safety climate campaign director Dan Becker said.
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