08.08.2023, 13:09
The outflow of money from Russians abroad has decreased
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS As of July 1, Russians had $ 73 billion in foreign bank accounts — in June, the amount increased by only 1.1 percent, or $ 829 million, RBC calculated based on Central Bank data.
The outflow of money abroad has been reduced to a minimum almost since the beginning of the crisis, when cross-border transfers in foreign currency were severely restricted by the Central Bank. Since June 2022, it has been stable at a level above a billion dollars per month. Back in May 2023, it was 1.03 billion, in April — 1.2 billion. In general, in the first half of this year, Russians transferred $ 8.9 billion to foreign accounts.
At the same time, journalists note that the outflow of funds in ruble terms in June reached a record — for the first time since December 2022, it amounted to 530 billion rubles. This was due to the sharp weakening of the ruble, which has fallen in price by 30 percent since the beginning of the year: in December, the average dollar exchange rate was 66.2 rubles, and in June — almost 84 rubles.
Russians began to transfer less currency abroad due to the saturation of demand for this savings option, explained Sofia Donets, Chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital. In addition, the holiday season played a role — people spend currency abroad instead of saving it for deposits.
Another factor is the growth of the share of liquid funds in the savings of Russians due to increased uncertainty. "If a Russian depositor prefers liquidity, then he will not want to withdraw money abroad," Donets explained. In addition, the expert noted that it has become more expensive and more difficult to transfer funds abroad, and the Russians themselves, against the background of weakening, prefer to sell currency rather than store it.
On August 7, the dollar rose above 97 rubles, the euro — above 106 rubles. Experts from the Higher School of Economics Development Center (HSE) warned that the weakening of the ruble by more than 30 percent since the beginning of the year increases inflationary pressure. At the end of the year, this factor may add 1.5-3 percentage points to the price increase. Analysts note that the main impact of the fall in the ruble is still ahead.
The outflow of money abroad has been reduced to a minimum almost since the beginning of the crisis, when cross-border transfers in foreign currency were severely restricted by the Central Bank. Since June 2022, it has been stable at a level above a billion dollars per month. Back in May 2023, it was 1.03 billion, in April — 1.2 billion. In general, in the first half of this year, Russians transferred $ 8.9 billion to foreign accounts.
At the same time, journalists note that the outflow of funds in ruble terms in June reached a record — for the first time since December 2022, it amounted to 530 billion rubles. This was due to the sharp weakening of the ruble, which has fallen in price by 30 percent since the beginning of the year: in December, the average dollar exchange rate was 66.2 rubles, and in June — almost 84 rubles.
Russians began to transfer less currency abroad due to the saturation of demand for this savings option, explained Sofia Donets, Chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital. In addition, the holiday season played a role — people spend currency abroad instead of saving it for deposits.
Another factor is the growth of the share of liquid funds in the savings of Russians due to increased uncertainty. "If a Russian depositor prefers liquidity, then he will not want to withdraw money abroad," Donets explained. In addition, the expert noted that it has become more expensive and more difficult to transfer funds abroad, and the Russians themselves, against the background of weakening, prefer to sell currency rather than store it.
On August 7, the dollar rose above 97 rubles, the euro — above 106 rubles. Experts from the Higher School of Economics Development Center (HSE) warned that the weakening of the ruble by more than 30 percent since the beginning of the year increases inflationary pressure. At the end of the year, this factor may add 1.5-3 percentage points to the price increase. Analysts note that the main impact of the fall in the ruble is still ahead.
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