OREANDA-NEWS  The growth rate of the microfinance market in Russia in 2024 may continue despite the tightening of regulation. Such consequences for the industry were predicted by the analysts of Expert RA, their words are quoted by Kommersant.

Next year, the growth of the total microloan portfolio may amount to 15-20 percent instead of the previously predicted 5-10 percent. According to analysts, it will increase to 440 billion rubles, while industry representatives believe that it will grow to 480 billion.

"The industry's portfolio will grow due to stable demand for loans, the efforts of the Central Bank to increase the transparency of the MFO market, as well as a partial flow of bank borrowers and refuseniks," explained Roman Makarov, CEO of IFC Zaimer. According to Elena Malysheva, Commercial director of Summit Group, there are no prerequisites for reducing consumer demand now.

The industry has adapted to reducing the maximum interest rate on microloans from 1 to 0.8 percent per day, changing macroprudential limits, reducing the allowable share of borrowers with a debt burden of more than 80 percent, limiting overpayments on loans, taking into account fines and penalties, and other measures taken to tighten regulation, the experts surveyed noted.

Some market representatives believe that the Central Bank's decisions to cool the market will lead to a decrease in disbursements from 10 to 50 percent of current volumes and a decrease in business profitability.

"The tightening of regulation in 2024 will lead to the need not only for a global restructuring of business models, scoring, but also, possibly, additional capitalization. Without financial injections, the market will stagnate," said Creditter CEO Igor Smirnov.

On January 1, new restrictions on the issuance of unsecured loans and credit cards came into force in Russia. Now, the allowable share of loans for customers with a debt burden of 50 to 80 percent in the first quarter of 2024 will be 25 percent instead of 30 percent. For credit cards, the loan limit will be 10 percent versus 20 percent. For microfinance organizations, it has been reduced from 30 to 25 percent.