OREANDA-NEWS  The main risk for the Russian economy next year from the point of view of large businesses is to maintain a high key rate of the Central Bank for a long time. This was stated by 77 percent of the participants in the joint VTB Bank and RBC study "Expectations and forecasts of Russian business — 2025", which the publication writes about.

At the same time, the majority of respondents expect that the rate will drop to at least 18 percent over the year, including a third of respondents talking about the range of 18-20 percent. The average result for the sample is 19 percent.

Only 11 percent of company representatives believe that high rates are the only weapon in the fight against inflation, and the negative period should simply be waited out. At the same time, 70 percent said that tight monetary policy has an extremely negative impact on investment activity, and the fight against inflation could be neglected.

Also among the top five risks of the company are tougher conditions for cross-border payments (61 percent), staff shortages and rising labor costs (57 percent), increased logistics costs for import delivery (39 percent), as well as a decrease in purchasing power among the Russian population (30 percent).

As for the dollar exchange rate, 70 percent of respondents expect it in the range of 95-105 rubles, and the average forecast is about 100 rubles. Currently, the official dollar exchange rate from the Central Bank is 107.7 rubles, but the Russian authorities consider such an increase to be a one-time surge of panic in the market.

Earlier, experts did not rule out that the key rate could rise to 25 percent early next year, because inflation has only accelerated in the last month. According to the updated forecast of the Bank of Russia, presented at the end of October, by the end of the year, price growth should be 8-8.5 percent, but various analysts suggest a significant overshoot of the designated boundaries.