25.08.2023, 15:57
The Chinese economy was blamed for the growth of inflation in Russia
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS The slowdown in China's economy will lead to a drop in global demand and, as a result, an increase in inflation in Russia.
The weak growth of the second world economy will primarily affect the global demand for raw materials, and hence Russian exports, predicted Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. She stressed that the influence of economic processes in China on Russia has only intensified after Moscow reoriented foreign trade to the East. Thus, in January-May 2023, the trade turnover between Russia and China increased by 41 percent, and in total, China accounts for more than half of Russian exports, mainly energy resources.
Konstantin Tserazov, an independent economist and financier, also said that the slowdown in the Chinese economy could lead to a drop in demand and an intensification of the recession. "Firstly, it is highly likely that it will put pressure on world prices, and secondly, such a scenario will be fraught with an expansion of the discount with which Russian oil is sold," he explained.
The economist stressed that such a situation would lead to a drop in the revenue of Russian exporters and a decrease in the supply of currency on the stock exchange. This will provoke a weakening of the ruble and create inflation risks. The exchange rate of the national currency will also be affected by the cheaper yuan, which will devalue the assets of the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
The weak growth of the second world economy will primarily affect the global demand for raw materials, and hence Russian exports, predicted Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. She stressed that the influence of economic processes in China on Russia has only intensified after Moscow reoriented foreign trade to the East. Thus, in January-May 2023, the trade turnover between Russia and China increased by 41 percent, and in total, China accounts for more than half of Russian exports, mainly energy resources.
Konstantin Tserazov, an independent economist and financier, also said that the slowdown in the Chinese economy could lead to a drop in demand and an intensification of the recession. "Firstly, it is highly likely that it will put pressure on world prices, and secondly, such a scenario will be fraught with an expansion of the discount with which Russian oil is sold," he explained.
The economist stressed that such a situation would lead to a drop in the revenue of Russian exporters and a decrease in the supply of currency on the stock exchange. This will provoke a weakening of the ruble and create inflation risks. The exchange rate of the national currency will also be affected by the cheaper yuan, which will devalue the assets of the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
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