31.01.2025, 09:42
Russians were warned about the rise in the price of loans
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS In the first quarter of 2025, loan rates in Russia will increase significantly. Mikhail Polukhin, director of the ACRA Financial Institution Ratings Group, warned about this, as quoted by the Izvestia newspaper.
According to the expert, an important role in the rise in the price of loans is played by the abolition by the Central Bank of restrictions on the full cost of the loan — the measure will be in effect from January 1 to March 31. Banks use this step of the regulator to compensate for the profitability of loans.
In 2024, banks raised deposit rates significantly against the background of an increase in the key interest rate, but the cost of loans did not grow proportionally due to the low key interest rate. The gap in the cost of deposits and loans has grown significantly, and now credit institutions can compensate for these losses.
"It can be assumed that the growth in consumer loan rates is currently less dependent on key movements, that is, at least by the end of the current quarter, it will be observed even in the event of a softening of the PREP," Polukhin explained.
According to Ilya Zharsky, managing partner of the Veta Expert Group, banks can include in the cost of loans the risk of non-payments from customers who have issued loans at a high interest rate in 2024. Prices may also be affected by geopolitical tensions and possible new sanctions restrictions, which is reflected in the interest rate policy of banks.
According to the Finuslugi marketplace (Mosbirzhi service), in 2024 the average approved interest rate on cash loans to individuals increased from 14.9 to 22.4 percent.
At the end of 2024, the average CPI in Russia's largest banks exceeded 34 percent. In the two months of the PUK, it grew by 1.4 percentage points. At the same time, the minimum cost of loans reached an average of 28.8 percent (plus three percentage points in two months). According to experts, the trend indicates that banks are expecting a new increase in the key rate.
According to the expert, an important role in the rise in the price of loans is played by the abolition by the Central Bank of restrictions on the full cost of the loan — the measure will be in effect from January 1 to March 31. Banks use this step of the regulator to compensate for the profitability of loans.
In 2024, banks raised deposit rates significantly against the background of an increase in the key interest rate, but the cost of loans did not grow proportionally due to the low key interest rate. The gap in the cost of deposits and loans has grown significantly, and now credit institutions can compensate for these losses.
"It can be assumed that the growth in consumer loan rates is currently less dependent on key movements, that is, at least by the end of the current quarter, it will be observed even in the event of a softening of the PREP," Polukhin explained.
According to Ilya Zharsky, managing partner of the Veta Expert Group, banks can include in the cost of loans the risk of non-payments from customers who have issued loans at a high interest rate in 2024. Prices may also be affected by geopolitical tensions and possible new sanctions restrictions, which is reflected in the interest rate policy of banks.
According to the Finuslugi marketplace (Mosbirzhi service), in 2024 the average approved interest rate on cash loans to individuals increased from 14.9 to 22.4 percent.
At the end of 2024, the average CPI in Russia's largest banks exceeded 34 percent. In the two months of the PUK, it grew by 1.4 percentage points. At the same time, the minimum cost of loans reached an average of 28.8 percent (plus three percentage points in two months). According to experts, the trend indicates that banks are expecting a new increase in the key rate.
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