30.03.2023, 07:30
Russia's Economy did not do well in February
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS In February 2023, judging by the latest statistics of Rosstat, the relatively positive results of January could not be consolidated. First of all, the attenuation of consumer demand attracts attention — according to the Ministry of Economy, the total turnover of retail trade, catering and paid services in February was 4.4% below the level of 2022 against a decrease of 3.6% in January. Note that the results in the annual comparison are strongly influenced by the panic consumption of February 2022. However, taking into account seasonality, according to the CMACP, after a noticeable January surge by December 2022, consumer spending in February froze by January — spending on food increased by 0.7% against an increase of 4% in January, and non-food products did not grow after an increase of 9.7% in January, which may mean exhaustion a noticeable part of the deferred demand, which, among other things, was financed by the January growth of real wages by 0.6%.
In general, based on Rosstat data, the Ministry of Economy estimated that in February the decline in GDP slowed down to 3.1% in annual terms against 3.2% in January, with the exception of seasonality, there was no growth in February compared to January (in January compared to December 2022, it was estimated at 0.2%). "The economy continues to be supported by an increase in the volume of work in construction. In addition, a positive contribution is made by the growth of industrial production and cargo turnover of transport (with the exception of pipeline)," the ministry notes. However, the assessment of the presence or absence of industrial production growth depends entirely on the methods by which seasonality is removed (in annual terms, output continues to fall — by 2% in January—February). The Ministry of Economy believes that the growth of industrial production in February with the elimination of the seasonal factor remained at the level of January and amounted to 0.2% compared to the previous month. According to Rosstat, seasonally adjusted output in the sector increased by 0.5% in February after a decline of 0.6% in January, and in comparison with the average monthly values of 2020 remains virtually unchanged from April 2022. It is noteworthy that, according to Rosstat estimates, industrial optimism, which has been growing rapidly since November 2022, has begun to stabilize since the beginning of 2023, albeit at high levels (see chart).
In general, based on Rosstat data, the Ministry of Economy estimated that in February the decline in GDP slowed down to 3.1% in annual terms against 3.2% in January, with the exception of seasonality, there was no growth in February compared to January (in January compared to December 2022, it was estimated at 0.2%). "The economy continues to be supported by an increase in the volume of work in construction. In addition, a positive contribution is made by the growth of industrial production and cargo turnover of transport (with the exception of pipeline)," the ministry notes. However, the assessment of the presence or absence of industrial production growth depends entirely on the methods by which seasonality is removed (in annual terms, output continues to fall — by 2% in January—February). The Ministry of Economy believes that the growth of industrial production in February with the elimination of the seasonal factor remained at the level of January and amounted to 0.2% compared to the previous month. According to Rosstat, seasonally adjusted output in the sector increased by 0.5% in February after a decline of 0.6% in January, and in comparison with the average monthly values of 2020 remains virtually unchanged from April 2022. It is noteworthy that, according to Rosstat estimates, industrial optimism, which has been growing rapidly since November 2022, has begun to stabilize since the beginning of 2023, albeit at high levels (see chart).
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