25.10.2019, 09:50
Risk of Russian Default Fell to a Minimum since pre-Crisis 2007
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS. Russia's credit risk (the level of five-year credit default swaps - CDS, reflects the cost of five-year insurance against Russian default risk on debts) this week fell to 74 points - the lowest since November 2007, the chief economist of Nordea Bank Tatyana Evdokimova drew attention.
The risk for Russia rose sharply in the 2008 crisis after the September collapse of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers and the ensuing global financial crisis: on October 28, 2008, it went beyond 1000 points. In subsequent years, it declined, but since then hasn't fallen to such levels as it is now yet. The historical minimum for Russian risk - 36.9 points - was recorded on June 5, 2007.
Earlier, Bloomberg warned that high-yielding emerging markets could become a new bubble threatened by political crises in Ecuador, Chile, Lebanon and other countries - although now the indices of stocks, bonds and currencies of emerging markets are near highs. However, Russia looks better against the background of countries with a similar rating level, says Svyatny. If, until 2008, excess liquidity from rising oil prices went to consumption, now with the introduction of the budget rule, all excess currency goes to the budget for savings and investment in the National Wealth Fund, he argues, indicating that this model is more stable.
The risk for Russia rose sharply in the 2008 crisis after the September collapse of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers and the ensuing global financial crisis: on October 28, 2008, it went beyond 1000 points. In subsequent years, it declined, but since then hasn't fallen to such levels as it is now yet. The historical minimum for Russian risk - 36.9 points - was recorded on June 5, 2007.
Earlier, Bloomberg warned that high-yielding emerging markets could become a new bubble threatened by political crises in Ecuador, Chile, Lebanon and other countries - although now the indices of stocks, bonds and currencies of emerging markets are near highs. However, Russia looks better against the background of countries with a similar rating level, says Svyatny. If, until 2008, excess liquidity from rising oil prices went to consumption, now with the introduction of the budget rule, all excess currency goes to the budget for savings and investment in the National Wealth Fund, he argues, indicating that this model is more stable.
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