OREANDA-NEWS  In 2024, export prices for Russian nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers will return to growth. This development of events was predicted to the market by analysts of the Center for Price Indices (CCI), they are quoted by the Vedomosti newspaper.

The cost of fertilizers will start to rise after falling last year due to a possible rise in the price of gas and phosphorous ore.

Nitrogen fertilizers will rise in price by 15-20 percent on average in annual terms, phosphorus fertilizers by 10 percent, and potash fertilizers, on the contrary, will become cheaper by 15-20 percent.

According to Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the Securities Markets Analytics Department at Alfa Bank, fertilizers will become more expensive due to a shortage of supply and increasing consumption volumes. The shortage of urea in the markets is two to four million tons, excluding China, which is also reducing the supply of fertilizers to the world market for food security reasons. At the same time, lower prices for natural gas and ammonia will hinder price growth, added Gennady Masakov, head of the analytical center at Yakov and Partners.

In March 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia proposed to limit the sale of mineral fertilizers abroad from June 1 to November 30, 2024. Quotas are proposed to be set in the amount of 19.74 million tons. At the same time, supplies to non-member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will be subject to restrictions.

According to Andrey Guryev, president of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, the supply of Russian fertilizers abroad has recovered to the level of 2021, to 59 million tons. Most of them (about 75 percent) were sales to friendly countries. The volume of exports of Russian fertilizers to unfriendly countries in 2022 decreased by 25-30 percent to 10 million tons. The priority areas of supply for Russian exporters have become the countries of the global south, where three quarters of all exports are already sent, the expert noted.