OREANDA-NEWS. If in previous years the profit of Russian banks doubled annually, then this year the indicator has been decreasing, and next year it will completely decrease by 2 times due to overdue loans of debtors and low interest rates on loans.

After-tax profits of Russian banks will decline by 18% in 2020, to 1.4 trillion rubles, after doubling the previous year to 1.7 trillion rubles. In 2021, the situation will worsen even more - banks will have only 735 billion rubles of net profit, the Analytical Credit Rating Agency predicts.

Banks, thanks to state support - subsidized loan rates - end the year "without significant losses", as official sources say: credit institutions increased lending during the pandemic and were able to earn only 18% less profit than last year.

But in the new year "deferred" risks will appear - it is necessary to create reserves for loans restructured in 2020 for the population and companies.

Banks will be forced to spend 1.5 trillion rubles on creating reserves. According to economists, the large-scale restructuring of loans carried out by banks makes it possible to postpone, but not avoid the realization of risks associated with a decrease in the solvency of borrowers in 2020.

According to forecasts, in 2021, the share of overdue loans for businesses will reach 8.8%, for the population - 6%. Low interest rates on loans and deposits will also worsen the situation.

Today it is difficult for banks to make money by issuing loans and attracting deposits because of the key rate that has been greatly reduced by the state. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already begun to revoke licenses from chronically unprofitable banks. At the same time, every tenth person in Russia bought shares: bank deposits were 4.7 trillion rubles short of the third quarter of this year.