OREANDA-NEWS  Inflation in the Russian Federation from January 16 to 22, 2024 amounted to 0.07% after 0.13% from January 10 to January 15 (due to the holidays, a shorter period of time than the usual weekly one turned out) and 0.26% from January 1 to January 9 (also due to the holidays, a longer period of price measurement), reported on Wednesday Rosstat.

Since the beginning of the year, the price increase in the Russian Federation by January 22 amounted to 0.46%.

From the data for the 22 days of January of this and last years, it follows that annual inflation in the Russian Federation on January 22 slowed to 7.37% from 7.44% on January 15 and 7.42% at the end of December, if calculated from weekly dynamics (this method is followed by the Central Bank), and slowed to 7.28% (from 7.40% at the end of December January 15), if it is calculated from the average daily data for the whole of January 2023 (this method is followed by the Ministry of Economic Development).

The Ministry of Economic Development estimated annual inflation in the Russian Federation at 7.28% on January 22, the corresponding figures are given in the ministry's review "On the current price situation".

"In the week from January 16 to January 22, inflation in the consumer market slowed to 0.07%. In the food sector, the price growth rate decreased to 0.11% (from 0.24% from January 10 to January 15): The price growth for fruits and vegetables slowed to 0.87% (from 1.64%), prices for other food products decreased by 0.04% (after an increase of 0.06% from January 10 to 15). In the non-food segment, there was a near-zero price increase of 0.02% in the reporting week (after an increase of 0.12% from January 10 to January 15). In the service sector, prices increased by 0.12% (after an increase of 0.04% from January 10 to January 15): the reduction in the cost of air tickets continued," the ministry's review says.

As reported, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at a meeting on December 15 made the expected decision to raise the key rate by 100 basis points to 16% per annum.

At the same time, the Central Bank maintained a neutral signal about the future direction of monetary policy in a statement following the results of the board of directors.

"The Bank of Russia will make further decisions on the key rate, taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, economic development on the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them," the Central Bank said in a statement.

The December press release also left a phrase about the need to maintain a tight policy in order to return inflation to the target of the Central Bank.

"The return of inflation to the target in 2024 and its further stabilization near 4% imply a prolonged period of maintaining tight monetary conditions in the economy," the press release said. The Central Bank's forecast for inflation in the Russian Federation for 2024 is 4.0-4.5%.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects (forecast from September) inflation in 2024 at 4.5%.

The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Interfax at the end of December for inflation in 2024 is 5.2%.