OREANDA-NEWS. The consequences of the outbreak in China of a new type of coronavirus can limit the growth of Russian GDP by 0.1-0.2%, according to experts interviewed by Russian media.

The consequences of the spread of pneumonia caused by a new type of coronavirus, which China notified the World Health Organization at the end of 2019, will harm the economy of not only the country, but also far beyond its borders. For Russia, a fall in business activity in industries such as retail, transportation and tourism, coupled with lower oil prices, market volatility and investors leaving risky assets will slow down GDP growth in 2020 by at least 0.1-0.2%, experts interviewed by Russian media believe. 

If the spread of coronavirus is stopped in the next few weeks, the pressure on the Russian economy from this factor will be very limited and will amount to 0.1% in GDP growth, says BCS Prime financial analyst Sergey Deineka. If a negative scenario is realized in which the active spread of the disease continues and spreads over time in the coming months, then the “viral” factor can slow down the growth rate of the Russian economy in the first quarter from 0.2-0.4% to 0.8-1% GDP, he added.