24.04.2020, 08:12
Deutsche Bank: with a Urals Price of $ 15 Russian NWF Will Last only Two Years
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS. The liquidity resources of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) may last only two years if the price of Urals remains at $ 15 per barrel. This is stated in the economic review of experts at Deutsche Bank.
In March 2020, $ 150 billion was accumulated in the liquid part of the NWF, however, after the government bought the share of Sberbank from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in early April, it should drop to about $ 120 billion, the bank calculated. “At a Urals price of $ 15 per barrel, the oil deficit will last a little over two years”, explained bank experts Petro Sidorov and Christian Vetoshka. They added that at a Urals price of $ 30, they would have been enough for six years.
In general, Russia's fiscal buffers are sufficient for a temporary oil shock, experts say. However, in conjunction with internal economic damage caused by the spread of coronavirus infection, fiscal space (a government budget reserve that can be used for certain purposes without compromising economic stability) will be significantly reduced, especially if oil prices show a slow recovery, bank experts added.
In March 2020, $ 150 billion was accumulated in the liquid part of the NWF, however, after the government bought the share of Sberbank from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in early April, it should drop to about $ 120 billion, the bank calculated. “At a Urals price of $ 15 per barrel, the oil deficit will last a little over two years”, explained bank experts Petro Sidorov and Christian Vetoshka. They added that at a Urals price of $ 30, they would have been enough for six years.
In general, Russia's fiscal buffers are sufficient for a temporary oil shock, experts say. However, in conjunction with internal economic damage caused by the spread of coronavirus infection, fiscal space (a government budget reserve that can be used for certain purposes without compromising economic stability) will be significantly reduced, especially if oil prices show a slow recovery, bank experts added.
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