Fitch Rates Equity Residential's Senior Unsecured Bonds 'A-'
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The ratings reflect EQR's high-quality portfolio focused in core, coastal markets as well as the company's market-leading capital access.
Portfolio Consolidated Within Core, Coastal Markets
EQR disposed of non-core, primarily suburban assets, to Starwood completing the exit from two markets and consolidating the portfolio within the markets that it wishes to focus on long term. EQR's portfolio is now contained (98%) within Boston, Los Angeles (including Orange Country), New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D. C. markets, which generally have above-average growth and liquidity through-the-cycle.
Appropriate Credit Metrics
For the trailing 12 months (TTM) ended June 30, 2016, EQR's leverage was 4.9x and fixed charge coverage (FCC) was 3.3x; both of which are good for the rating. Fitch assumes that EQR continues to maintain a robust development pipeline, such that, combined with the company's special dividend to be paid in October 2016, leverage will sustain in the 6.5x-7.0x range over the long term.
Good Contingent Liquidity
Fitch expects EQR will maintain unencumbered asset coverage of unsecured debt in excess of 2.5x, consistent with prior periods. Based on location and age, the quality of the unencumbered portfolio is consistent with that of the overall portfolio.
Preferred Unit Notching
The two-notch differential between EQR's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and preferred stock rating is consistent with Fitch's criteria for corporate entities with an IDR of 'A-'. Based on Fitch criteria in 'Treatment and Notching of Hybrids in Nonfinancial Corporate and REIT Credit Analysis, dated Feb. 29, 2016 and available at www. fitchratings. com, these preferred securities are deeply subordinated and have loss absorption elements that would likely result in poor recoveries in the event of a corporate default.
Stable Outlook
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that EQR's leverage should sustain within the expected 6.5x-7x range over the longer term.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions for EQR in our base case include:
--SSNOI growth is in the low single digits for 2016-2017;
--$500 million of annual acquisitions at a 5% capitalization rate and $500 million of annual dispositions at a 6% capitalization rate;
--$600 million of development completions in each of the three years of the forecast period;
--Adjusted funds from operations payout ratio between 69%-77%;
--Secured debt is refinanced dollar-for-dollar in all three years of the forecast period.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The following factors may have a positive impact on EQR's ratings or Outlook:
--Combined with EQR management's commitment, Fitch's expectation of leverage sustaining below 6.5x throughout cycles (Fitch expects leverage to sustain between 6.5x-7.0x on a longer-term basis; leverage was 4.9x as of June 30, 2016);
--Fitch's expectation of FCC sustaining above 3.5x (coverage was 3.3x for TTM ended June 30, 2016).
The following factors may have a negative impact on EQR's ratings or Outlook:
--A deviation from EQR's current portfolio, capitalization or financing strategy that could result in a deterioration in the company's market-leading access to capital on an absolute or relative basis;
--Fitch's expectation of leverage sustaining above 7.5x;
--Fitch's expectation of FCC sustaining below 2.5x;
--A liquidity coverage ratio sustaining below 1.0x.
FULL LIST OF RATINGS
Fitch currently rates EQR as follows:
Equity Residential
--Long-Term IDR 'A-';
--Unsecured revolving term loan 'A-';
--Preferred stock 'BBB'.
ERP Operating Limited Partnership
--Long-Term IDR 'A-';
--Short-Term IDR 'F2';
--Unsecured revolving credit facility 'A-';
--Senior unsecured notes 'A-';
--Commercial paper notes 'F2'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
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