Fitch Affirms Santander Consumer Spain Auto Deals; Outlook Stable
FTA Santander Consumer Spain 2012-1
Class A notes affirmed at 'A+sf', Outlook Stable
FTA Santander Consumer Spain 2013-1
Class A notes affirmed at 'A+sf', Outlook Stable
FTA Santander Consumer Spain 2014-1
Class A notes: affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
Class B notes: affirmed at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
Class C notes: affirmed at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class D notes: affirmed at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
Class E notes: affirmed at 'CCsf'; Recovery Estimate of 50%
All three transactions are securitisations of auto loans originated in Spain by Santander Consumer EFC SA, a wholly-owned and fully integrated subsidiary of Santander Consumer Finance (SCF, A-/Stable/F2) whose ultimate parent is Banco Santander S. A. (A-/Stable/F2).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Rating Capped by Counterparty Exposure
The class A note ratings of series 2012-1 and 2013-1 are limited by the exposure to SCF as the holder of the account bank. The documentation sets the counterparty rating trigger at 'BBB' in 2012-1 and 'BBB+'/'F2' in 2013-1, which constrains the rating of the notes to 'A+sf' according to Fitch's counterparty criteria. In both cases, the exposure to the account bank is larger than usual as it holds retained collections of up to 20% and 8% of the collateral balance respectively, due to a principal retention feature.
Increased Credit Enhancement
Credit enhancement for the class A notes in 2012-1 and 2013-1 series has increased as the transactions have gradually deleveraged. Consequently, current credit enhancement of the class A notes in both series is able to support the highest achievable rating for Spanish SF transactions of 'AA+sf'. However, this rating level is not achievable due to the rating cap as a result of the transaction's exposure to the account bank.
On the other hand, 2014-1 credit enhancement has remained constant as asset amortisation has been offset by the purchase of new assets.
Robust Performance
Cumulative defaults over initial collateral balance amount to 1.4% for 2012-1, 0.6% for 2013-1 and 0.1% for 2014-1, while 30d+ delinquencies over outstanding collateral balance amount to 2.8%, 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Fitch believes that the strong performance observed is representative of lifetime performance in the case of 2012-1 and 2013-1 as a considerable portion of the assets of both deals has already amortised, to 16% for 2012-1 and 36% for 2013-1.
Fitch has therefore revised the lifetime 360d+ default base cases to 1.7% from 1.9% for 2012-1 and to 1.3% from 2% for 2013-1, while the lifetime recovery base cases have been revised to 26.3% from 25.8% and 28.8% from 27.4% respectively. For 2014-1, default and recovery base cases for the amortisation period, which are based on 180d+ default definition, have remained unchanged at 5.4% and 32.9% respectively.
Limited Negative Migration
2014-1 originally featured a four-year revolving period while the other two deals have been static since closing. 2014-1 portfolio characteristics and concentration levels have remained stable since closing in November 2014. The negative migration of the portfolio characteristics during the remaining two-year revolving period is limited by the eligibility criteria, portfolio limits and early amortisation events. However, the risk of a potential migration to the worst case portfolio during the remaining revolving period has been captured in the analysis.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch believes the class A notes' ratings of 2012-1 and 2013-1 series are able to absorb large variations to our base case credit assumptions. This is because the ratings are capped by counterparty exposures. As a result a combined increase of the default rate by 25% and a reduction of the recovery rate assumptions by 25% would not have any rating impact.
2014-1 Class A, B, C, and D notes sensitivities to default and recovery rates is the following:
Current Rating: 'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'
Class A, B, C, and D notes sensitivities to default and recovery rates:
Increase default rate base case by 15%: 'A-sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'BB-sf'
Increase default rate base case by 30%: 'BBB+sf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'/'B+sf'
Reduce recovery rate base case by 30%: 'A-sf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'BB-sf'
USE OF THIRD-PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO RULE 17G-10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pools and the transactions. There were no findings that affected the rating analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing monitoring.
Prior to the transactions closing, Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information and concluded that there were no findings that affected the rating analysis.
Overall, Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
The information below was used in the analysis.
-Loan-by-loan data provided by European DataWareHouse as of August 2016 (2012-1) and June 2016 (2013-1 and 2014-1)
-Transaction reporting provided by Santander Titulizacion as of August 2016 (2012-1), July 2016 (2013-1) and July 2016 (2014-1)
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