Fitch Assigns Towd Point Mortgage Funding 2016 - Auburn 10 Plc Expected Ratings
Class A1: 'AAA(EXP)sf', Outlook Stable
Class A2: 'AAA(EXP)sf', Outlook Stable
Class B: not rated
Class C: not rated
Class D: not rated
Class E: not rated
Class F: not rated
Class Z: not rated
The assignment of the final ratings is contingent on the receipt of final documents conforming to information already received.
The transaction is a securitisation of buy-to-let (BTL) mortgages originated in the UK by Capital Home Loans Limited (CHL).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Pre-crisis BTL Loans
The portfolio consists of 10-year seasoned BTL loans originated by CHL. Some of the loans have been previously securitised in the Auburn Securities plc transactions, all of which have performed in line with or better than the Fitch UK BTL index. Fitch is using its prime matrix to determine the foreclosure frequency on the loans, given CHL's mortgage book performance, underwriting guidelines, and origination practices; Fitch is applying an upward adjustment to the foreclosure frequency.
Low Margins, Favourable Affordability
As the pool was originated under different economic conditions and market standards than currently prevalent, the weighted-average (WA) interest rate is relatively low at around 2.1%. This results in a relatively high interest coverage ratio (ICR), implying high affordability for borrowers and lower expected default probabilities.
Un-Hedged Basis Risk
98.7% of the loans track the Bank of England base rate (BBR). As the notes pay three-month LIBOR, and no swap is in place, the transaction is exposed to basis risk between BBR and three-month LIBOR. Fitch stressed the transaction cash flows for basis risk, in line with its criteria. This, combined with the low margins, results in limited excess spread in Fitch's cash flow analysis.
Unrated Originator and Seller
CHL is not a rated entity and as such may have limited resources available to repurchase any mortgages in the event of a breach of the representations and warranties (RW) given to the issuer. While this is a weakness, there are mitigating factors that make the likelihood of a RW breach remote.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Material increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables producing losses greater than Fitch's base case expectations may result in negative rating actions on the notes. Fitch's analysis revealed that a 30% increase in the weighted average (WA) foreclosure frequency, along with a 30% decrease in the WA recovery rate, would imply a downgrade of the class A1 notes to 'AA+sf' from 'AAAsf' and a downgrade of the class A2 notes to 'AAsf' from 'AAAsf'.
More detailed model implied ratings sensitivity can be found in the presale report which will be available at www. fitchratings. com
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.
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