Fitch Takes Various Rating Actions on 3 National Collegiate Student Loan Trust Transactions
National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2003-1:
--Class A-7 affirmed at 'BBsf', Outlook revised to Stable from Negative;
--Class B-1 affirmed at 'Csf', RE revised to 20% from 0%;
--Class B-2 affirmed at 'Csf', RE revised to 20% from 0%.
National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-1:
--Class A-3 affirmed at 'CCsf', RE 85%;
--Class A-4 affirmed at 'CCsf', RE 85%;
--Class B-1 affirmed at 'Csf', RE 0%;
--Class B-2 affirmed at 'Csf', RE 0%.
National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-2/NCF Grantor Trust 2004-2:
--Class A-4 upgraded to 'BBsf' from 'Bsf', Outlook revised to Stable from Negative;
--Class A-5-1 upgraded to 'BBsf' from 'Bsf', Outlook revised to Stable from Negative;
--Class A-5-2 upgraded to 'BBsf' from 'Bsf', Outlook revised to Stable from Negative;
--Class B affirmed at 'Csf', RE revised to 45% from 0%;
--Class C affirmed at 'Csf', RE 0%.
The outlook revision for 2003-1 class A-7 notes and upgrade of 2004-2 class A-4 and A-5 notes are due to the trusts steady performance, Fitch's revised default projections and improved parities. Current loss coverage multiples are commensurate with the current ratings for trusts 2003-1 and 2004-2. Although Fitch's analysis indicates a higher rating for 2004-2 class A notes, Fitch decided to upgrade the notes only to 'BB' due to concerns for higher expenses in the future that could erode excess spread.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Collateral Quality: All trusts are collateralized by private student loans originated by various financial institutions and lenders and securitized by First Marblehead Corporation. At deal inception all loans were guaranteed by The Education Resources Institute (TERI); however, no credit was given to the TERI guaranty since TERI filed for bankruptcy on April 7, 2008. The projected remaining defaults for all trusts range from 13% to 16% of the current balance.
Credit Enhancement: Credit Enhancement (CE): CE is provided by the generation of excess spread. Additionally, the senior notes will benefit from subordination of junior notes. As of July 2016, senior parity ratios for the series 2003-1, series 2004-1 and series 2004-2 were 125.3%, 101.0% and 124.3%, respectively, and total party ratios were 76.3%, 70.1% and 85.5%.
Liquidity Support: Support for the notes is provided by a reserve account for each trust.
Servicing Capabilities: The portfolio is serviced by American Education Services (AES), ACS Education Services (ACS), Firstmark Services LLC, Great Lakes Educational Loan Services Inc., and Nelnet for series 2003-1 and series 2004-2, only. Additionally, U. S. Bank National Association acts as special servicer. Fitch believes these servicers are acceptable servicers of private student loans.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
As Fitch's base case default proxy is derived primarily from historical collateral performance, actual performance may differ from the expected performance, resulting in higher loss levels than the base case. This will result in a decline in CE and remaining loss coverage levels available to the notes and may make certain note ratings susceptible to potential negative rating actions, depending on the extent of the decline in coverage. Fitch will continue to monitor the performance of these trusts.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third-party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
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