Fitch Assigns NewDay Funding's Notes Ratings
GBP129.3m Series 2016-1 A: 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP18.8m Series 2016-1 B: 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP27.8m Series 2016-1 C: 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
GBP37.9m Series 2016-1 D: 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP20.1m Series 2016-1 E: 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP13.8m Series 2016-1 F: 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
Fitch has simultaneously affirmed the following tranches:
GBP147.3m Series 2015-1 A: 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP21.6m Series 2015-1 B: 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP31.8m Series 2015-1 C: 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
GBP44.1m Series 2015-1 D: 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP22.8m Series 2015-1 E: 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP15.3m Series 2015-1 F: 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP300m Series 2015-VFN: 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP146.7m Series 2015-2 A: 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP21.3m Series 2015-2 B: 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP31.5m Series 2015-2 C: 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
GBP44.1m Series 2015-2 D: 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP22.8m Series 2015-2 E: 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable
GBP15.6m Series 2015-2 F: 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Non-Prime Asset Performance: The charge-off and payment rate performance of the pools reflects the non-prime nature of the assets, which is mitigated by available credit enhancement. Fitch has set a steady state charge-off assumption of 18%, with a stress on the lower end of the spectrum, due to the high absolute level of the steady state assumption (3.5x for AAAsf). We applied a payment rate steady state assumption of 10%, with a stress of 45% at 'AAAsf'.
The specific nature of the underlying receivables means performance is not directly comparable with prime UK credit card transactions.
Changing Pool Composition: The portfolio consists of an open book and a closed book, which have displayed different historical performance trends. Fitch expects overall pool performance to migrate towards the performance of the open book, as the closed book amortises. Fitch has built this expectation into its steady state asset assumptions.
Variable Funding Notes Add Flexibility: In addition to Series 2015-VFN providing the funding flexibility that is typical and necessary for credit card trusts, the structure employs a separate Originator VFN, purchased and held by NewDay Funding Transferor Ltd (the transferor). This note serves three main purposes: to provide credit enhancement to the rated notes; to add protection against dilution by way of a separate functional transferor interest; and to serve the minimum risk retention requirements.
Unrated Originator and Servicer: The NewDay group acts in a number of capacities through its various entities, most prominently as originator and servicer, but also as cash manager to the securitisation. In most other UK trusts these roles are fulfilled by large institutions with strong credit profiles. The degree of reliance in this transaction is mitigated by the transferability of operations, agreements with established card service providers, a back-up cash management agreement and a non-amortising liquidity reserve per series.
Stable Asset Outlook: Despite the slower growth expected in the UK following the Brexit vote, Fitch's outlook for UK credit cards remains stable. Slower growth will have an impact on asset performance, but based on Fitch's current macro forecast, asset deterioration should stay within steady-state levels for the trust. (see Credit Card Index - UK 3Q16).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Rating sensitivity to increased charge-off rate
Increase base case by 25% / 50% / 75%
Series 2016-1 A: 'AAsf' / 'A+sf' / 'A-sf'
Series 2016-1 B: 'A+sf' / 'A sf' / 'A-sf'
Series 2016-1 C: 'BBB+sf' / 'BBBsf' / 'BBB-sf'
Series 2016-1 D: 'BB+sf' / 'BB-sf' / 'B+sf'
Series 2016-1 E: 'B+sf' / NA/ NA
Series 2016-1 F: NA/ NA/ NA
Rating sensitivity to reduced MPR
Reduce base case by 15% / 25% / 35%
Series 2016-1 A: 'AAsf' / 'A+sf' / 'A-sf'
Series 2016-1 B: 'A+sf' / 'BBB+sf' / 'BBBsf'
Series 2016-1 C: 'BBB+sf' / 'BBBsf' / 'BBB-sf'
Series 2016-1 D: 'BB+sf' / 'BB+sf' / 'BBsf'
Series 2016-1 E: 'B+sf' / 'B+sf' / 'B+sf'
Series 2016-1 F: NA/ NA / NA
Rating sensitivity to reduced purchase rate (ie aggregate new purchases divided by aggregate principal repayments in a given month)
Reduce base case by 50% / 75%
Series 2016-1 A: 'AAAsf' / 'AAAsf'
Series 2016-1 B: 'AAsf' / 'AAsf'
Series 2016-1 C: 'Asf' / 'Asf'
Series 2016-1 D: 'BB+sf' / 'BB+sf'
Series 2016-1 E: 'Bsf' / NA
Series 2016-1 F: NA / NA
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information and concluded that there were no findings that affected the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small targeted sample of NewDay's origination files in April 2015 and found the information contained in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the originator's policies and practices and the other information provided to the agency about the asset portfolio.
Overall, Fitch's assessment of the asset pool information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
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