Fitch Affirms Banco BTG Pactual & Related Entities' Ratings; Removes Ratings from Neg Watch
KEY RATING DRIVERS
BTG Pactual Group (BTG Pactual, BTG Investments and BTG Pactual Holding)
The removal of the rating of BTG Pactual from Rating Watch Negative reflects Fitch's recognition of the stabilization of the bank's liquidity, its comfortable capitalization and the successful management of its crisis situation. Its financial profile remains solid with good earnings generation, controlled asset quality while signs of a slow rebuilding of its funding franchise can already be perceived. As such, Fitch believes that no further deterioration of its ratings and risk profile are expected and Rating Watch Negative is no longer necessary.
Management has demonstrated its ability to address its liquidity crisis, by building a large liquidity cushion, reducing the bank's leverage and addressing concerns regarding possible implications of rumoured suspicious transactions through a thorough review made by a legal counsel formed by leading law firms, consultants and investigators that were hired by independent members of its Administrative Board.
The review found no evidence of any wrongdoing or any potential exposure to litigations stemming from these transactions. This has somehow helped the bank to isolate itself from the accusations faced by its main controller and former CEO, which are now being reviewed by a lower court after being transferred from Brazil's Supreme Court after former Senator Delcidio do Amaral was impeached due to his involvement in this scandal. A resolution on Mr. Esteves case given this change could take longer than previously anticipated.
The Negative Outlook assigned to BTG Pactual's IDRs capture the challenges imposed by the current operating environment, which in Fitch's view continues to present a negative trend.
From a corporate governance standpoint, the bank took measures to address the negative impacts on its franchise, caused by the arrest of its former CEO and main shareholder, Andre Esteves. The steps included well-succeed reorganization of its ownership structure, reducing Mr. Esteves power to return to the bank without the concurrence of the group of main partners.
The asset sale of non-core assets was also successful and helped to improve the bank's liquidity position and should help it to repay the remaining portion of the funding facility obtained with FGC during the liquidity crisis. The current exposure stands at BRL1.8 billion and should be fully repaid once the sale of BSI is finalized.
In terms of risk appetite and credit risk exposures, an active sale of loan portfolios at market prices helped to restore the bank's liquidity but also reduced the bank's credit risk exposure to some sensitive names at an opportune time as credit profiles of several large corporate names have deteriorated over the year.
The reduction of BTG's global markets and merchant banking exposures at the group level were already part of the group's strategic plan and were accelerated by the push to improve liquidity levels and bode well in terms of reducing the bank's risk exposures and leverage.
SUBSIDIARIES AND AFFILIATED COMPANIES
PAN, BFRE, BM, BS
Pan and its subsidiaries LT IDRs were affirmed at 'BB-' and its Rating Watch Negative was also removed, following BTG's Negative Rating Watch removal announced today. The long-term International ratings Outlook is now Negative, mirroring that of Caixa's IDRs, its main source of support, which in turn is aligned with the outlook for Brazil's sovereign ratings. Pan's ratings are notched one level from Caixa LT IDRs.
Pan's Viability Rating (VR) at 'b' factors in that the bank's business plan has been largely constrained over the last years by the weak operating environment, which has limited a complete turnaround of its operating performance. The operational losses also stem from Pan's heavy legacy costs, which include expensive funding structures.
An unfavourable market scenario has further deteriorated and not allowed the bank to grow as fast as necessary to achieve targeted profitability improvements. In fact, the economic recession scenario has led to additional cost control measures, such as the reduction of the number of executives, aimed at matching the bank's team to a continued weak economic environment, which should have a positive effect on the bank's results in the medium term.
Fitch believes that Pan's subsidiaries (BFRE, BM and BS) will also receive the same support from Caixa in case of need. This is justified by the subsidiaries' active role, synergies and full integration with Pan. BFRE, BM and BS are fully owned subsidiaries of Pan that operate in an integrated manner with the bank and are fully consolidated in the bank, being subject to same regulatory oversight.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
BTG Pactual Group's IDRs and VR
The potential for an upgrade on BTG Pactual's IDRs is limited in the short and medium term due to the challenges imposed by the current operating environment.
The bank's ratings could be downgraded in case of a steep deterioration of its profitability metrics to levels below an operating profit ROAA of 1% and Fitch Core Capital falls below 10%.
Though there is a lower risk of this scenario materializing, BTG Pactual's ratings could be downgraded in the event of any accusation of wrongdoings and/or official investigations are unveiled related to the bank's business and operations that result in pressures on the bank's reputation and further weaken its franchise and financial profile.
BTG Pactual Group's National Ratings
BTG Pactual's National Ratings could be revised in the near term depending on the stabilization of the improvements already observed on its financial profile, mainly considering its funding and liquidity profile and maintenance of its profitability.
Pan and Subsidiaries
Pan's IDRs could be downgraded if Caixa reduces its ability or propensity to provide support to Pan. Changes in funding and credit sales agreements provided by Caixa, or in Pan's shareholder's structure, could also trigger a negative rating action. Also, changes on the sovereign rating that lead to changes in Caixa's ratings would directly affect Pan's IDRs.
In addition, Pan's ratings will remain sensitive to those of BTG, as the latter continues to equally share control of Pan meaning that potential downgrades of BTG's ratings can impact Pan's ratings, too - which is not our current base case scenario.
A downgrade to Pan's VR could be triggered by successive net losses combined with a backdrop of capital ratios falling to even lower levels (Fitch Core Capital ratio stood at 8.7% in June 2016).
The following ratings were affirmed and have been removed from Rating Watch Negative and where applicable the respective Outlooks assigned:
Banco BTG Pactual S. A.
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB-', Negative Outlook;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Viability Rating at 'bb-';
--Long-term National Rating at 'A-(bra)'; Stable Outlook;
--Short-term National Rating at 'F2(bra)';
--Senior unsecured notes, due in September 2017, foreign currency rating at 'BB-';
--Senior unsecured notes due in January 2020, foreign currency rating at 'BB-';
--Senior unsecured notes due in January 2034, foreign currency rating at 'BB-';
--Subordinated notes due in September 2022, foreign currency rating at 'B';
--Perpetual non-cumulative junior subordinated notes, foreign currency rating at 'B-'.
BTG Investments LP
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B+'; Negative Outlook;
--Support Rating at '4';
--Senior guaranteed notes at 'BB-'.
BTG Pactual Holding S. A.
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Long-term National Rating at 'A-(bra)'; Outlook Stable;
--Short-term National Rating at 'F2(bra)'.
Banco Pan S. A.
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Viability Rating at 'b';
--Support Rating at '3';
--Long-term National Rating at 'A+(bra)'; Outlook Stable;
--Short-term National Rating at 'F1(bra)'.
Brazilian Finance & Real Estate S. A.
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Long-term National Rating at 'A+(bra)'; Outlook Stable;
--Short-term National Rating at 'F1(bra)'.
Brazilian Mortgages Cia Hipotecaria
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Long-term National Rating at 'A+(bra)'; Outlook Stable;
--Short-term National Rating at 'F1(bra)';
Brazilian Securities Cia de Securitizacao
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Long-term National Rating at 'A+(bra)'; Outlook Stable;
--Short-term National Rating at 'F1(bra)'.
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