OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings (Thailand) Limited says the increase in CP ALL Public Company Limited's (CP ALL; A+(tha)/Negative) issue of new senior unsecured bonds No. 2/2559 to as much as THB12bn from THB5bn has no impact on the company's National Long-Term Rating or on the 'A(tha)' rating on the debentures.

CP ALL will use the increase in issue size to refinance some of its existing unsecured debt. The bonds will be issued in four tranches due in 2019, 2023, 2026 and 2028.

The senior unsecured notes are notched down one level from CP ALL's 'A+(tha)' National Long-Term Rating due to a significant amount of prior-ranking debt, which made up 4.3x of the company's EBITDA in the 12 months to June 2016.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Slower Deleveraging Expected: The Negative Outlook on CP ALL's rating reflects weak economic growth in Thailand, which meant CP ALL is taking longer than expected to reduce its leverage to below Fitch's threshold for negative rating action. CP ALL's FFO-adjusted net leverage for the last 12 months to end-June 2016 was 5.9x and leverage is likely to remain above 3.5x beyond 2017, which is not compatible with its 'A+(tha)' rating. The pace of deleveraging has been hampered by weaker-than-expected profitability and cash generation. However, CP ALL plans to divest a portion of its interest in cash-and-carry wholesaler Siam Makro PCL (Makro) and use the proceeds to reduce debt. This should trim its leverage to below 3.5x.

Moderate but Defensive Growth: Fitch expects CP ALL's sales to increase by about 11% in 2016, mainly driven by new store openings, while 7-Eleven's same-store sales growth is likely to be in the low single digits in 2016 (2Q16: 5%). The company continues to benefit from the "defensive" nature of its business, which sells daily essentials with low revenue and margin volatility, amid a weaker-than-expected recovery in the Thai economy. Its medium-term growth potential is still supported by Thailand's immature market for modern food retail.

Leading Market Position: CP ALL is the largest operator in Thailand's convenience store market. It is likely to maintain its leading position despite intense competition. CP ALL has more than 9,000 stores nationwide; it has a market share of more than 60% of all convenience stores in the country, far more than the second-largest operator. Its dominance is supported by a large network and coverage area, along with well-established functions such as logistics, supply and maintenance, and staff training and development.

Strong Retail Brand: CP ALL operates 7-Eleven stores, a leading international brand of convenience chain stores. CP ALL was granted an area licence agreement for Thailand from 7-Eleven, Inc., USA, with the first store opening in 1989. Thailand is now the second-largest international licensee of 7-Eleven, Inc., after Japan.

Proven Competitive Advantage: CP ALL's acquisition of Makro, the market leader in modern food wholesaling stores in Thailand, increases and broadens the company's customer base to create Thailand's largest company in the food retail sector. The leadership and synergy have enabled both CP ALL and Makro to post a stronger growth than other large food retailers with no deterioration in margin amid the weak operating environment over the past 12-18 months.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include:

- 11%-12% revenue growth in 2016-2017;

- EBITDAR margin in the range of 9.5%-10.0% in 2016-2017;

- 650 new 7-Eleven stores and 13-14 new Makro stores in 2016;

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include:

- Failure to divest Makro shares or take other initiatives to reduce its FFO-adjusted net leverage to below 3.5x by 2017 (End-June 2016: 5.9x)

- Deterioration in EBITDAR margin to below 8.5% on a sustained basis (1H16: 10.0%)

- Negative free cash flow generation for two consecutive years

Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to revision of the Outlook to Stable include:

- FFO-adjusted net leverage at less than 3.5x.