Fitch Affirms NongHyup Bank at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
KEY RATING DRIVERS
IDRS, SENIOR DEBT, SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
The bank's IDRs, senior debt ratings, Support Rating and Support Rating Floor are based on Fitch's belief of an extremely high propensity of the South Korean sovereign (AA-/Stable) providing support to NongHyup Bank, if required. This reflects the bank's systemic importance to the country's banking system, holding about 10% of total system assets and 13% of deposits at end-2015. Korean authorities designated NongHyup Bank as a domestic systemically important bank in December 2015. The bank also helps fund the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (NACF), its ultimate parent, so it can fulfil its own policy roles.
NongHyup Bank's Long-Term IDR and Support Rating Floor do not reflect any uplift from the bank's declining policy role within its overall commercialised operation. NongHyup Bank is privately owned and does not have a state solvency guarantee. We do not believe authorities would prioritise NongHyup Bank over other systemically important commercial banks in providing extraordinary support in times of need.
The Stable Outlook on the bank's Long-Term IDR reflects that of South Korea's sovereign. NongHyup Bank's Short-Term IDR is affirmed at 'F1'.
VIABILITY RATING
NongHyup Bank's 'bbb' Viability Rating reflects the bank's significant local franchise and solid funding base. It also reflects a higher risk appetite, modest management-quality and low internal capital generation compared with Korea's major commercial banks, stemming from its linkage to NACF.
NongHyup Bank has a large Korean franchise and strong nationwide network. Close relationships with local governments help the bank attract substantial local government deposits, which represented about 24% of its total deposits at end-2015. These allow the bank to maintain its superior loans/customer deposits ratio of 102% at end-2015 (adjusted for interbank loans and deposits), compared with the 120% commercial bank average.
Fitch believes NACF's influence over NongHyup Bank's operations could compromise its corporate governance and management-quality, which is assessed as weaker than Korea's major commercial banks. The bank is incentivised to maximise profits to support NACF's distributions to its member cooperatives and farmers under NACF's complex organisational structure. The bank is prone to taking higher risks that could subsequently result in losses - indeed, NongHyup Bank reported net losses of KRW124.5bn in 2H15 and KRW320bn in 1H16.
The bank's precautionary-and-below loan ratio of 3.0% at end-1H16, if not for large-scale write-offs, is likely to lag the peer average of about 2.1% as NongHyup Bank cleans up its troubled large corporate exposures. It remains to be seen whether the bank's declaration to cut back on weak sector exposures and strengthen risk controls can effectively be carried out in the short - to medium-term. Fitch expects NongHyup Bank to manage down its loan growth to about 5% in 2016, in-line with other commercial banks, focusing on SMEs and SOHO sectors.
Fitch estimates the bank's return on average assets to be about 0.1% to 0.2% in the near-term, weighted-down by relatively high credit-costs and brand fees to be paid to NACF. This is despite the bank's higher net-interest-margin, which benefits from its credit-card segment, than local peers. Fitch believes the brand fee can be lowered if the bank comes under serious stress, even though NACF opposes the idea.
We expect NongHyup Bank's weak internal capital generation to limit further improvements in its capitalisation and estimate the bank's Fitch Core Capital Ratio to be around 12% at end-2016, versus the local commercial bank average of 12.8% in 1Q16. We also believe the ratio could fall by a further 1.3pp if the risk-weight on NongHyup Bank's exposure to individual cooperatives is adjusted to 100% from 20% to exclude a local regulatory favour. The bank's direct parent, NongHyup Financial Group Inc. (NHFG), has a relatively high common-equity-double-leverage ratio of 119% at end-1Q16 and a Fitch Core Capital Ratio ratio of 11.2%.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
IDRS, SENIOR DEBT, SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
The bank's IDRs, senior debt ratings, Support Ratings and Support Rating Floor are sensitive to changes in our assumptions around the propensity and ability of the South Korea sovereign to provide timely support to the bank. This might arise if there is a change in the Korean authorities' ability to provide support.
Global regulatory initiatives aimed at limiting implicit sovereign support for banks may cause downward pressure on bank ratings. The local regulator plans to propose a revision to its resolution framework to add a bail-in feature toward the end-2016. It remains to be seen how strong the language will be and how feasible it will be to enforce a bail-in in practice.
VIABILITY RATING
The bank's Viability Rating is sensitive to a change in Fitch's assumptions regarding its relationship with the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (NACF). This would probably be reflected in the bank's risk appetite and capital management.
Fitch may upgrade NongHyup Bank's Viability Rating if there is a significant decline in its burden to support NACF's distributions, leading to stronger and sustainable profitability and internal capital generation, or if there is an improvement in the bank's persistently low risk appetite as reflected in better asset-quality and lower credit-costs in the medium-term.
Conversely, Fitch may downgrade NongHyup Bank's Viability Rating if its risk appetite noticeably weakens. This would be reflected in a notable delay to its planned reduction of exposure to troubled sectors in the short-term or aggressive asset-growth far exceeding internal capital generation in the medium-term. The bank's Viability Rating may also be downgraded if an unexpected credit-event further erodes its capitalisation buffer.
The rating actions are as follows:
NongHyup Bank
Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'F1'
Viability Rating affirmed at 'bbb'
Support Rating affirmed at '1'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'A-'
Senior unsecured debt (including global medium-term note programme) affirmed at 'A-'
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