Fitch Affirms Eagle Credit Card Trust
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation is based on continued positive trust performance and robust breakeven multiples in line with expectations. The Stable Outlook indicates that Fitch expects the ratings will remain stable for the next one to two years.
Monthly payment rate (MPR), a measure of how quickly consumers are paying off their debt, has improved over the past year. Currently the 12-month average is 56.35%, up from 53.27% at the July 2015 distribution period.
Net charge-offs have decreased slightly in the past year. Currently, the 12-month average is 3.36%, down from 3.84% as of the July 2015 distribution period. As of the July 2016 distribution period, the 12-month average 60+ day delinquencies were 1.02% compared to the 12-month average of 1.12% at this point last year. Fitch expects charge-off levels to remain stable in the near term given the high quality of the credit card portfolio.
The current 12-month average gross yield for Eagle Credit Card Trust is 24.36% as of the July 2016 distribution period, compared with a 12-month average of 25.11% as of July 2015.
Fitch runs cashflow breakeven analysis by applying stress scenarios to three-, six-, and 12-month performance averages to evaluate the breakeven loss multiples at different rating levels. The performance variables that Fitch stresses are the gross yield, MPR, gross charge-offs, and purchase rates.
Fitch's analysis included a comparison of observed performance trends over the past few months to Fitch's base case expectations for each outstanding rating category. As part of its ongoing surveillance efforts, Fitch will continue to monitor the performance of Eagle Credit Card Trust.
Criteria Variation
Under the Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds, dated July 18, 2016, Fitch looks to its own ratings in analyzing counterparty risk and assessing a counterparty's creditworthiness. The definition of permitted investments for Eagle allows for the possibility of using investments not rated by Fitch, which represents a criteria variation. Since the only available funds to invest are monthly collections, and the funds can only be invested for a short duration of one month given the payment frequency of the notes, Fitch doesn't believe such variation has a measurable impact upon the ratings assigned.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch models three different scenarios when evaluating the rating sensitivity compared to expected performance for credit card asset-backed securities transactions: 1) increased defaults, 2) a reduction in purchase rate, and 3) a combination stress of higher defaults and lower MPR. Increasing the default rate alone has the least impact on rating migration even in the most severe scenario of a 75% increase in defaults. The rating sensitivity to a decrease in purchase rate is more pronounced with a severe stress of a 100% decrease, and would lead to possible downgrades across all classes. The harshest scenario assumes both increased defaults and reduced MPR stresses occur simultaneously. Similarly, the ratings would only be downgraded under the moderate stress of a 50% increase in defaults and 25% reduction in MPR; however, the severe stress could lead to more drastic downgrades to all classes. To date, the transactions have exhibited strong performance with all performance metrics within Fitch's initial expectations.
USE OF THIRD-PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G-10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.
Fitch has affirmed the following ratings:
Eagle Credit Card Trust, Series 2013-1:
--Class A notes at 'AAAsf; Outlook Stable;
--Class B notes at 'Asf; Outlook Stable;
--Class C notes at 'BBBsf; Outlook Stable.
Eagle Credit Card Trust, Series 2015-1:
--Class A notes at 'AAAsf; Outlook Stable;
--Class B notes at 'Asf; Outlook Stable;
--Class C notes at 'BBBsf; Outlook Stable.
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