Fitch Affirms Bank Pekao's Support Rating at '2'
The affirmation of the Support Rating of Pekao follows the recent sale of a 10% stake in the bank by its parent UniCredit SpA (UC, BBB+ /Negative/bbb+).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
SUPPORT RATING
The Support Rating of Pekao reflects Fitch's view that, despite the reduction of UC's stake in the bank to 40.1%, the probability of potential support from UC, in case of need, remains high. Fitch believes that UC has a strong ability and high propensity to support Pekao. This view is predominantly based on:
-Potential support that Pekao could require would likely be manageable for UC, given the moderate size of Pekao relative to resources available in the wider UC group. Fitch expects that intragroup fungibility of capital is likely to increase at cross-border banking groups within the eurozone.
-Fitch's view that the reduction of the stake held in Pekao did not change the strategic importance of Pekao to UC or UC's commitment to the Polish market. Pekao has a long and successful track record of strong performance, supporting UC's profitability
-High reputational risk for UC and its operations in the EU of not providing support on a timely basis to its Polish subsidiary
-Effective control of UC over Pekao and its expected full consolidation in UC's accounts despite UC no longer having a majority stake in the bank
Fitch expects that continued parent support will provide a floor to Pekao's Long-Term IDR at a notch below that of UC.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
SUPPORT RATING
The SR is sensitive to a change in assumptions around the propensity or ability of UC to provide timely support to the bank.
The SR could be downgraded if Fitch concludes that UC's ability to provide support has weakened, as evidenced by UC's Long-Term IDR being downgraded by more than one notch. A downgrade could also result from a decision by UC to exit the Polish market and sell the remaining stake in Pekao to a lower-rated party or to a diversified investor base.
An upgrade of the SR is unlikely at present given the Negative Outlook on UC's Long-Term IDR and the review of UC's strategy.
The rating actions are as follows:
Pekao
Long-Term IDR unaffected at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
Short-Term IDR unaffected at 'F2'
Viability Rating unaffected at 'a-'
Support Rating affirmed at '2'
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