OREANDA-NEWS. S&P Global Ratings raised its global scale issue-level rating on Autopista Monterrey-Cadereyta's senior secured debt to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-'. At the same time, we raised our national scale rating on this debt to 'mxAAA' from 'mxAA'. The debt consists of fixed-rate (5.70%) inflation protected unit (UDI) 637.8 million senior secured notes due December 2029. The outlook remains stable.

The upgrade reflects our more favorable view of the project's operating and financial performance in the next 24 months, which should yield stronger-than-expected DSCRs.

Traffic on the toll road increased 24.3% in 2015. The rise was due to lower insecurity in the region and significant traffic growth at one of the toll road's tranches, the Via Rapida Aeropuerto (VRA), which boosted cash flow generation and the project's main coverage ratios. Traffic on the VRA increased because of higher traffic volumes at the Monterrey airport and the development of a business park adjacent to the airport. For 2016 we're assuming a traffic growth of 7%, which is higher than Mexico's GDP growth forecast, in line with the performance the toll road has shown for the first few months of this year. For the following years, we're assuming an average annual traffic growth of 3.0%, converging with the GDP growth rate. Construction stand-alone credit profile (SACP): NAToll road has been operating for more than 20 years. The stable outlook reflects our expectations that AMC's revenue will continue to rise on stable basis in the upcoming years, which would allow the project to generate solid DSCRs. Such scenario allows us to expect the full repayment of debt by 2022, seven years before its 2029 maturity. We could lower the debt rating on AMC if traffic diminishes, alternative roads were to be built, or if O&M expenses unexpectedly increase, which could reduce DSCRs to 1.30x or below.

Given that the debt rating on AMC is the same as on Mexico, an upgrade of the former is unlikely due to the high country risk and our belief that the project would default if the sovereign were to do so.