S&P: Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s $3.225 Billion Term Loan B-2 Rated 'BBB' (Recovery Rating: 1)
Hilton also announced today that it expects to issue $750 million in unsecured notes, the proceeds of which we expect it to use to fund transaction fees and expenses related to the planned spin-off of Hilton's owned real estate and timeshare operations, as well as to repay a portion of debt that will move into the new real estate company Park Hotels & Resorts. We believe that cash distributions to Hilton from timeshare company Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) following the completion of planned future borrowings at that entity (as described in the Form 10-12B filed June 2, 2016) will partially offset the additional unsecured debt. Despite the additional unsecured debt in the capital structure, we believe that Hilton will utilize the receipt of funds from HGV to repay outstanding amounts under the term loan, leading to only a modest deterioration in recovery prospects for unsecured lenders as a result. After incorporating the company's planned $750 million unsecured notes into our recovery analysis, we would expect to assign a 'BB+' issue-level rating and '4' recovery rating to the planned notes as soon as practical upon the launch of this debt.
For the full corporate credit rating rationale, see our research update on Hilton, published on June 2, 2016, on RatingsDirect.
RECOVERY ANALYSIS
Key analytical factors
Our simulated default scenario contemplates a payment default in 2021, reflecting prolonged economic weakness and significantly reduced travel by corporate and leisure customers. We assume a reorganization following the default, using an emergence EBITDA multiple of 8x to value the company.
Simulated default assumptionsYear of default: 2021EBITDA at emergence: $760 millionEBITDA multiple: 8x
Simplified waterfallNet enterprise value (after 5% administrative costs): $5.8 billionPriority claims: $30 millionNet enterprise value after priority claims: $5.8 billion----------------------------------------------------Secured debt: $5.0 billion--Recovery expectation: 90% to 100%Senior unsecured debt and pari passu claims: $2.4 billion*--Recovery expectation: 30% to 50% (low end of range)
Note: All debt amounts include six months of prepetition interest. *Reflects additional unsecured debt.
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