Fitch Expects to Rate CIBC's CARDS II Trust, Series 2016-1 Notes; Presale Issued
--$USD TBD class A notes 'AAAsf(EXP)'; Outlook Stable;
--$CAD TBD class B notes 'BBBsf(EXP)'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Fitch's expected ratings are based on the underlying receivables pool, available credit enhancement, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's underwriting and servicing capabilities, and the transaction's legal and cash flow structures, which employ early amortization triggers.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch models three different scenarios when evaluating the rating sensitivity compared to expected performance for credit card asset-backed securities transactions: 1) increased defaults; 2) a reduction in purchase rate, and 3) a combination stress of higher defaults and a lower monthly payment rate (MPR).
Increasing default rate alone has the least impact on rating migration even in the most severe scenario of a 75% increase in defaults. The rating sensitivity to a reduced purchase rate is more pronounced with a severe stress, of a 100% decrease, and leads to possible downgrades of the class A notes. The harshest scenario assumes both default and MPR stresses occur simultaneously. Similarly, the ratings would only be downgraded under the moderate stress of a 50% increase in defaults and 25% reduction in MPR; however, the severe stress could lead to more drastic downgrades of all classes.
To date, the CARDS II Trust transactions have exhibited strong performance with all performance metrics within Fitch's initial expectations. For further discussion of Fitch's sensitivity analysis, please see the related presale report. For a discussion of the representations, warranties, and enforcement mechanisms available to investors in this transaction please see the related presale appendix.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
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