Fitch Affirms Chase Issuance Trust Ratings
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The measure of 60+ day delinquencies has steadily declined each month since the peak of 3.81% during the January 2010 distribution period. Currently 60+ day delinquencies are at 0.80% for the July 2016 distribution period.
One-month excess spread is at a near-historic level of 13.58% for the July 2016 reporting period.
Monthly payment rate (MPR), a measure of how quickly consumers are paying off their credit card debts, has improved over the past year and is trending with the Fitch index. Currently Fitch's Index Monthly Payment Rate is at 31.12% for the July 2016 distribution period.
Fitch runs cash flow breakeven analysis by applying stress scenarios to three - and 12-month averages performances to test that under the stressed conditions, the transaction can withstand a level of losses commensurate with the risk associated to a rating level with the available credit enhancement. The variables that Fitch stresses are the gross yield, MPR, gross charge-off, and purchase rates. For further information, please review the U. S. Credit Card ABS Issuance Trust updates published on a monthly basis.
Fitch's analysis included a comparison of observed performance trends over the past few months to Fitch's base case expectations for each outstanding rating category. As part of its ongoing surveillance efforts, Fitch will continue to monitor the performance of these trusts.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch models three different scenarios when evaluating the rating sensitivity compared to expected performance for credit card asset-backed securities transactions: 1) increased defaults; 2) a reduction in purchase rate, and 3) a combination stress of higher defaults and lower MPR.
Increasing defaults alone has the least impact on rating migration even in the most severe scenario of a 75% increase in defaults. The rating sensitivity to a reduction in purchase rate is slightly more pronounced with a moderate stress of a 75% reduction, leading to a possible downgrade on the class A notes. The harshest scenario assumes both stresses to defaults and MPR to occur simultaneously. The ratings would only be downgraded under the severe stress of a 75% increase in defaults and 35% reduction in MPR. To date, the transactions have exhibited strong performance with all performance metrics within Fitch's initial expectations. For further discussion of sensitivity analysis, please see the new issue report related to one of the transactions listed above.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third-party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to these rating actions.
Fitch has affirmed the following ratings and revised Outlooks as indicated:
--2007-2A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2007-3A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2007-1B at 'Asf', Outlook to Stable from Positive;
--2007-1C at 'BBBsf', Outlook to Stable from Positive;
--2007-5A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2007-12A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2012-2A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2012-4A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2012-7A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2012-10A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2013-1A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2013-3A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2013-6A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2013-7A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2013-8A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2013-9A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2014-1A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2014-2A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2014-5A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2014-6A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2014-7A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2014-8A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-1A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-2A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-3A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-4A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-5A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-6A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2015-7A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2016-1A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2016-2A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--2016-3A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable.
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