OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the ratings of The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (IPG) including its Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB'. The Rating Outlook has been revised to Positive from Stable. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of the release.

The positive outlook reflects Fitch's belief that IPG's credit protection metrics and credit profile are strong for the 'BBB' rating. IPG's operating profile has shown marked improvement since FY 2012 (EBITDA margins have improved more than 200 bps), and the company continues to make progress to close the gap relative to its peer group. Fitch believes this improvement will continue as the business grows and IPG further scales its cost structure while maintaining its conservative financial posture.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

--IPG's ratings reflect its position in the industry as one of the largest global advertising and marketing services holding companies, its diverse client base, and its ample liquidity.

--The ratings incorporate the cyclicality of the advertising industry and potential top-line volatility due to client wins or losses in any given year. IPG has reduced its exposure to U. S. advertising cycles by diversifying into international markets and marketing services businesses. For FY 2015, approximately 41% of IPG's revenues were generated outside the U. S. IPG delivered organic revenue growth of 6.1% and 6.7% in 2015 and first quarter 2016, respectively. The company expects organic growth in the range of 3% to 4% in 2016. Fitch believes this is achievable given its current forecast for U. S. GDP growth and Worldwide GDP growth of 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, for 2016.

--Digital ad spend continues to capture more of the total advertising market. IPG remains platform agnostic and the company remains focused on growing and strengthening its digital capabilities across their agency portfolio in line with market trends.

--The risk of revenue cyclicality is balanced somewhat by the flexible cost structures of IPG and the other global advertising holding companies. IPG has made significant progress in improving margins from 10.7% in FY 2009 to 14.4% in FY 2015. Fitch expects the EBITDA margin to continue improving reaching 14.7% by year-end 2016 and expects IPG to achieve peer level margins within the next two to three years, assuming low - to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth over this timeframe.

--The ratings reflect Fitch's expectation that IPG will manage unadjusted gross leverage to a level below 2.0x. Fitch expects capital deployment to go toward acquisitions, share buy backs and dividend growth. However, Fitch expects any such deployment to remain in the context of current ratings.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for IPG include:

--Margins expected to improve from cost controls and operating leverage;

--Model assumes constant dividend growth;

--Model assumes share buyback near prior ranges as well as ongoing acquisitions.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Fitch would consider an upgrade if the Company continues to demonstrate improvement in its operating profile, specifically EBITDA margin of approximately 15%, to bring them more in line with industry peers while maintaining leverage below 2.0x.

Fitch is comfortable with management's willingness and ability to maintain its 'BBB' rating. However, a change in the company's posture regarding adequate bondholder protection over the near and long term could negatively affect the rating. This may include an unadjusted gross leverage greater than 2.75x, significant margin erosion, or sustaining free cash flow (FCF) margin below 3%.

LIQUIDITY

IPG's total debt outstanding as March 31, 2016 was $1.8 billion (including capital leases). Fitch calculates unadjusted gross leverage at 1.6x.

Fitch views IPG's liquidity as solid. IPG's liquidity position is supported by a cash balance of $673 million and marketable securities of $7 million as of March 31, 2016, in addition to $996 million of availability under its $1 billion revolving credit facility due Oct. 2020. The company's next two maturities are $300 million due in 2017 and $250 million in 2022.

Fitch-calculated FCF increased to $429 million in the latest 12 months (LTM) period ended March 31, 2016, from $267 in 2013. Fitch expects 2016 FCF in the range of $350 to $450 million. Fitch expects IPG to maintain sufficient liquidity to handle seasonal working capital swings. Fitch's FCF expectation also incorporates capital expenditures of $150 to $170 million. In addition, Fitch's FCF expectations incorporate IPG's increased quarterly common dividend to $0.15/share, for total annual cash dividend payments of approximately $240 million.

IPG's U. S. pension plan was $25.8 million underfunded as of the end of 2015. IPG should have no issues meeting any required U. S. pension plan funding.

In February 2016, IPG announced an additional $300 million share repurchase authorization, increasing total remaining authorization to $404.9 million as of March 31, 2016. The rating incorporates Fitch's belief that the company will deploy liquidity, including FCF, toward share repurchases and acquisitions in a disciplined manner. Fitch expects IPG to continue to target small bolt-on acquisitions and the current ratings do not contemplate or expect a materially large acquisition.

FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

Fitch has affirmed the following ratings:

IPG

--LT IDR at 'BBB';

--Bank credit facility at 'BBB';

--Senior unsecured notes at 'BBB';

The Rating Outlook has been revised to Positive from Stable.