Fitch Affirms Ratings on Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2015-3 Notes
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the following ratings on the senior and subordinate notes issued by Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2015-3. The Rating Outlook remains Stable for all notes.
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf' Outlook Stable;
--Class A-3 at 'AAAsf' Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
High Collateral Quality: The trust collateral consists of Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) loans, including 24.72% rehabilitated (rehab) loans, with guaranties provided by eligible guarantors and reinsurance provided by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) for at least 97% of principal and accrued interest. Fitch's current U.S. sovereign rating is 'AAA'/Stable Outlook.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement: CE is provided by overcollateralization (OC; the excess of trust's asset balance over bond balance) and excess spread, and for the senior notes, subordination of the class B note. As of March 31, 2016, senior and total parity are expected to be 104.42% and 102.25%, respectively. A target OC amount equal to the greater of 2.10% of the adjusted pool balance and $2 million must be met before excess spread can be released from the trust.
Adequate Liquidity Support: Liquidity support is provided by a $6,411,026 million reserve account, with a required reserve fund balance of 1.75% of the outstanding note balance until April 2020. On or after the April 2020 distribution date, the specified reserve requirement will be the greater of 0.25% of the outstanding note balance and 0.10% of the initial note balance.
Acceptable Servicing Capabilities: Day to day servicing is provided by Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency (PHEAA) and Xerox-ES. Xerox-ES will service approximately 93.43% of the portfolio, and PHEAA will service the remaining 6.57%. In Fitch's opinion, both servicers are acceptable servicers of FFELP student loans.
On Nov. 18, 2015, Fitch released its exposure draft which delineates revisions it plans to make to the 'Rating U.S. Federal Family Education Loan Program Student Loan ABS Criteria', dated June 23, 2014. Fitch has reviewed this transaction under both the existing and proposed criteria.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Since the FFELP student loan ABS relies on the U.S. government to reimburse defaults, 'AAAsf' FFELP ABS ratings will likely move in tandem with the 'AAA' U.S. sovereign rating. Aside from the U.S. sovereign rating, defaults, basis risk, and loan extension risk account for the majority of the risk embedded in FFELP student loan transactions. Additional defaults, basis shock beyond Fitch's published stresses, lower than expected payment speed, and other factors could result in future downgrades. Likewise, a buildup of CE driven by positive excess spread given favorable basis factor conditions could lead to future upgrades.
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