OREANDA-NEWS  At the next meeting on July 26, the board of Directors is likely to raise the key rate by 2 percentage points (pp) — from the current 16 to 18 percent per annum. This is reported by the Izvestia newspaper with reference to the consensus forecast of the surveyed analysts.

A total of 22 experts took part in the survey. More than half of them (13) predicted the implementation of the above scenario. At the same time, three analysts allowed an even more rapid increase in the rate, to 19-20 percent. In turn, a third of respondents believe that the regulator's management will raise the figure to 17-18 percent. Two more analysts expect the rate to rise by 1 percentage point, to 17 percent.

As one of the main reasons for the likely tightening of the Central Bank's monetary policy following the results of the next meeting, Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis Department at Finam, named a significant upward deviation in inflation from the Central Bank's latest forecast. Thus, the regulator expected consumer prices to rise by the end of 2024 at the level of 4.3-4.8 percent, whereas by July 8, inflation in the country amounted to 4.68 percent. The situation is also influenced by rising wages, steady domestic demand and a decrease in imports due to problems with settlements against the background of sanctions, the experts surveyed summarized.

A significant increase in the Central Bank's key rate following the results of the July meeting was previously predicted by Natalia Vashchelyuk, senior analyst at the First management company. According to her expectations, the board of directors of the regulator will raise the rate to 18 percent. According to the expert, this should be enough, since disinflationary factors are likely to take effect in the second half of 2024.